‘Trends in Extreme Weather Events since 1900 – An Enduring Conundrum for Wise Policy Advice’
23 July 2019
10:59
Het wordt dus warm. Extreem warm zelfs. ‘Groot nieuws’ waar je her en der mee wordt doodgegooid. Het gekke is echter dat de eerste helft van de 20e eeuw meer uitschieters kende dan de tweede helft.
Kelly, MJ – Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge- bestudeerde relevante data en zijn onderzoek werd onder andere gepubliceerd in het Journal of Geography & Natural Disasters (2016).
Abstract
It is widely promulgated and believed that human-caused global warming comes with increases in both the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. A survey of official weather sites and the scientific literature provides strong evidence that the first half of the 20th century had more extreme weather than the second half, when anthropogenic global warming is claimed to have been mainly responsible for observed climate change. The disconnect between real-world historical data on the 100 years’ time scale and the current predictions provides a real conundrum when any engineer tries to make a professional assessment of the real future value of any infrastructure project which aims to mitigate or adapt to climate change. What is the appropriate basis on which to make judgements when theory and data are in such disagreement?
